The State of the Race
With literally just a few months separating us from knowing just how the chaos of the GOP nomination fight will begin to play out, the Republican field is pretty much settled. Unfortunately, for those who have yet to settle on a candidate in hope the perfect Elephant would appear, must now settle on a candidate from a group that perhaps is less than inspiring to many. So let's look at the major players and I will give my assessment on the current state of the race.
Mitt Romney - The Weak Frontrunner
Governor Romney is perhaps the most interesting candidate for a number of reasons; one being that he could easily pass as a Democrat some days. For me, I don't consider this a bad thing. The fact that he is more moderate than the other candidates not only makes him less scary but presents him as more rational. Romney's acceptance of global climate change as fact, his solution for universal healthcare, the call for clean energy independence, and even being hailed in many circles as being the man that kick-started the same-sex marriage movement in Massachusetts many years ago should be valued. But what's most unfortunate about these things, these progressive stances (current and former) for the Governor are what make him unattractive to many conservative voters. That, I say, is a shame, it's 2011. Over the next few weeks, I expect to see Romney's numbers finally begin to creep upwards and end his stagnant 20-25% poll numbers as the republicans begin to realize time is running out.
Rick Perry - The Fumbler
What happened Rick? Did you not realize the country isn't just a bigger version of Texas? To be fair, I did give the Governor a chance to impress me and all I can say that didn't go very well. I believe that Rick Perry's biggest problem and reason he has lost his momentum is the fact that the Perry model works in Texas and the U.S. is very different from the state. Of course there are the other reasons such as coming off as too arrogant (for a man that's never lost almost anything he seems to have assumed the same thing about running for President), also bad debate performances and of course the infamous immigration issue, one I believe Perry shot himself in the foot on. Over the next weeks, I believe we'll see his numbers remain steady in the second-to-third place range.
Herman Cain - The Surprise Contender
Mr. Cain is a nice case study for any political analyst. This man comes from no where to lead or near lead in several national polls. Of course a lot of this could be attributed to the lost Perry voters who just can't warm up to such a "liberal" as Romney. But then there's his paradox of the new exposure. I'll say that at first, I found him to be interesting, energizing and somewhat capable of fixing some of our major problems, but then, as he interviewed more, commented more and continued to speak on other issues, I found it to be surprising and off-putting. Particularly his comments on homosexuality. If you missed it, during an interview on "The View," Mr. Cain said he believed homosexuality is a choice, and that if you could show him "the science, [he] could be persuaded." As a homosexual myself, I was taken aback and almost couldn't believe that someone, in 2011, in the U.S. of A not only believes that, but would say it whilst running for the highest office in the nation. Mr. Cain, it is at that moment, I realized that Herman Cain is a little too disconnected on not just this but a number of issues, and therefore, I feel I would lose a good amount of brain cells supporting him.
Ron Paul - Mr. Consistent
I like Ron Paul, but he will not get my vote. I think many people can agree with his views on many issues but at the same time you have to wonder, has he actually thought about how to implement such changes and make them work in our country? His positions have been consistent, and I embrace his defense of liberty, however, some of his suggestions are disturbing and to me would only be credible if the U.S. were a utopia. For example, eliminating the FAA, certain regulations, his view of healthcare, etc. He says that the private sector could do the same jobs, which is probably true but would it be better; that is the question. The idea of industry regulating itself (where its interests are of its own and not the people) is a difficult one to believe could actually work positively for the better. Ron Paul should expect to remain static in the race.
Jon Huntsman - The Future of the Party
Governor Huntsman doesn't stand a chance this time around. He's far too progressive, accepting and just plain rational, a cardinal sin for a GOP candidate. Supporting civil unions, embracing the need to address climate change, and a host of other platforms make Jon Huntsman a novel force in the Republican Party. Why? Because in a way, it is a step in the right direction. Now, I like Huntsman because of his rationale but it will take several more election cycles for the Republican Party to catch up to him, and I believe it will. It has to. Jon Huntsman is fairly young, who knows, perhaps one day he will be the face of the GOP of tomorrow. We can only hope. Gov. Huntsman, now may not be your time, but it's coming.
Michelle Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich - The Uphill Battles
These last three candidates I predict will be the first out of the race. Of course between them all there are good ideas, and some very, very bad ones but even if we combine them all together, I don't think they could gain enough traction to keep moving. Newt doesn't even seem to want to be President (it looks like he's either running for VP or was just bored and decided to run), Michelle is just way too far out there that... I don't even know where to begin (sometimes I'm embarrassed to be a member of the same party as her), and actually, that which was said about the Congresswoman can easily be applied to Rick. Steady low-polling for these three I predict.
Other than several more debates, I don't think we can expect much more major news on this, the Republican field, during the month of October. And THAT is my assessment.
Your thoughts?
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