Only in Vegas
Are you thinking what I'm thinking?
Just how messy is this primary going to get. If last night's Las Vegas debate is any indication of the current state of affairs, it could get worse. I think it's safe to say, that we learned that the "field" may be settled but the candidates are not ready to settle in their respective polling positions.
As a viewer, a voter and a real human being (not the MSM), I would like to express my take on the 7-ring circus of last night.
Mitt Romney is on defense
As much as we could have expected the random overplayed flying attacks at Romney as usual for any of the past debates, I don't think many could have predicted the onslaught that occurred last night. Several times Mitt was put on the extreme defense but even then he could barely get his rebuttal in edgewise thanks to over-zealous rivals who made it their mission to not only attack Romney but to make sure he didn't have the opportunity to defend himself properly. It all began with Santorum, launching what was at its base, another prepared attack on Romney's healthcare plan in Massachusetts. To me, these attacks on "Romneycare" are really getting old; it's always the same old points. This time, however, Santorum took it upon himself to go at it with a little more spirit, which for a split second, rattled the frontrunner. When Romney tried to respond though, Rick Santorum decided he would not give the Governor the chance to make his case, which may have worked against the attack. A second attack over Romney's plan came from Newt Gingrich, the man who rarely takes shots at other republicans. Now, I must add the reason for my belief that these attacks are ineffective. "Romneycare" was put in place in Massachusetts several years ago. What was done, has been done. Romney has admitted there are things about it he doesn't like and would change if he could and there are strong elements of it that helped the state and it's people. Romney has also said he would not implement something like that on the national level and would fervently repeal Obamacare. So to constantly attack Governor Romney on a plan that is not relevant to this day and this race is just bollocks. Romney has made it clear that as president he would repeal Obamacare and return the healthcare plan making business to the states. 'Nuff said. What more do they want?
Clearly there is still some major, even personal, bad-blood between Perry and Romney. A lot of it comes out of desperation however on Perry's end. No other candidate has seen such a dramatic and damaging slump as he has so it was time for Perry to pull out anything he could to be noticed, and that, he tried. Perry whipped out an ancient story about Romney's contracted company he hired to do his lawn-work at one of his homes. Governor Perry used this piece to frame Mitt as a hypocrite on immigration (I guess Perry didn't pay attention to the 2008 GOP race since he didn't know this was already covered). Does Perry really believe that that story, which was presented incorrectly by Perry, is going to make Romney look bad on immigration, when as Romney points out, Texas has seen an increase of 60% in illegal immigration since Perry's been in office? Really Rick? As we found out later, the audience had had enough of Perry's petty attacks on Romney and booed him when he brought it up again later in the debate. All-in-all, I think Perry's choice to desperately attack Romney may end up hurting him more. Have you ever noticed it's always Perry who incites these exchanges? Mitt is perfectly fine just expressing his views but Perry makes it obvious he just wants to fight. Maybe that's his Texas-style.
Rough ride on the Cain-Train
Herman Cain didn't get off completely unscathed last night either. Within the first twenty minutes his 9-9-9 tax plan came under fire from all sides. Bachmann led the assault which brought in Santorum, who may have made the strongest case against it, and then Perry, Romney and Gingrich and Ron Paul dubbed it "dangerous." Romney, to much applause, pointed out how people would be paying the new 9% sales tax in addition to their current state and local sales taxes. A point Mr. Cain didn't fully convince would not be a tax increase. Even with such a punching bag as the 9-9-9 plan, Herman's spotlight on the stage faded as the others went at Romney.
Bachmann is Bach
Congresswoman Bachmann made it her mission to not fade into the background last night and it was clear she was sticking to that. She delivered a few good lines and made some solid clear points, particularly on taxes and got the audience excited about how even the Obama Administration doesn't exactly like Obamacare. She let everyone know that it is unpopular across the board and repealing it will not be an impossible challenge. Unfortunately for Michelle, it is likely too late and her supporters are too split for her to gain her spot back near the top of the pack.
Dr. Paul? Are you there?
It's such an interesting phenomenon that when the sparks are flying on stage, Ron Paul fades into the background. Dr. Paul had some solid responses to several questions last night but because of all the in-fighting happening around him, many of his points will go unnoticed by viewers who are not already Ron Paul supporters. It's hard to say where this will leave him in the post-debate polling.
It's not over.
Without another debate for about a month, watching the poll numbers and commentary over the next few weeks will be interesting. I expect Governor Romney will remain the frontrunner but right below/next to him will be some significant changes. Perry, Bachmann and Cain all share virtually the same support base in many ways. That may translate into notable shifts in their polling. If Perry has done well by undecided or fluid voters in last night's debate then his numbers will likely go up. But that means Herman may see some of his supporters (who were likely Perry supporters prior) return to Perry. Most likely it will even them out and tie them for second place but still fairly distant behind Romney. Romney, with consistent growing support among big figures with endorsement power may see his numbers climb very slowly but steadily. As for the rest of the pack, one day they'll be up, the next day they'll be down.
Sound off on your take.
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