It's Debate Night in the 'Live Free or Die' State
What an interesting last three weeks it has been since the last 2012 GOP debate in Orlando. So many elements of the race have changed making tonight's showdown something to be very closely watched. For one, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Fmr Alaska Governor Sarah Palin have officially (and finally) rejected the opportunity to run for the nomination, effectively settling the field. That means for Republican voters watching the debate, what you see is what you get. The GOP nominee will be one of the seven men and one woman on stage. This means for conservatives, it's time to stop waiting for the savior of the party and take a close look at what's been on the table for months. Hopefully tonight's Bloomberg/Washington Post Debate will provide that opening.
Perry's big fall and Herman Cain's big surge is perhaps the most notable and important change the the dynamics of the race. After putting up stiff competition and giving Governor Romney a serious run for his money, Texas Governor Rick Perry is not just losing ground, he's basically donating it to Businessman Herman Cain. Recent polls show Perry's once decisive lead in the polls is gone and I for one believe it is gone for good. Only a monstrous Romney blunder could save Perry. As for Mr. Cain, he is clearly the only person that benefits from the fall of Perry since Perry supporters just can't stomach such a "liberal" as Romney. But Herman Cain is such an interesting contender, considering none of the other candidates believe he really is now the second place candidate. Why is that? Perhaps it's because Herman Cain is just too unexpected. Or maybe it's because the more he is in the spotlight, the more it is clear that this man is out of touch. Now, as a Republican myself, I was neutral towards Cain before his rise. However, in the weeks subsequent to his Florida Straw Poll win, I, as many other conservative voters began to listen closely to the businessman. While I like his straight talk and energy, I can't say I'm too fond of his opinion on hot button issues other than the economy.
I find it hard to believe that any Presidential candidate would start so many responses with "Now I don't have the facts to back this up, but I believe..." Really Herman? You're going to admit to not knowing anything about what you're talking about and proceed to voice your policy perspective as if it should be taken seriously? This is perhaps his critical flaw for me; his lack of actual, in-depth understanding. In a previous post, I mentioned Cain and his view of homosexuality during his visit to "the View" and how he believes it is a choice to be homosexual. To me this is just not acceptable that a presidential candidate in the year 2011 not only doesn't find it necessary to research and then develop a viewpoint and voice it to the public but also the fact that Herman Cain is perfectly happy living in a parallel reality where facts and science are just silly things to consider (the same could be said about Mr. Perry, and dare I say, the supporters that support both of these candidates).
This brings us to tonight's debate, the first since Herman Cain can now safely claim to be the second place candidate, the first since Mitt Romney recaptured his frontrunner status and the first since Rick Perry now needs to steal thunder from a man who was easily in the bottom tier just weeks ago.
What can we expect? One thing is for sure, Herman Cain will not get a pass this time around like he has in previous debates with softball questions. We can expect Rick Perry to relentlessly tackle both Mitt and Herman, however, I believe this will work to his disadvantage for several reasons. One being that is becomes clear to voters that Rick is willing to spend the vast majority of his time ripping apart his own party members instead of promoting HIS plans and ideas for public policy. Another reason is that voters will realize that Governor Perry doesn't actually have a solid plan, which is why he must distract with attacking others, and thirdly, if Romney and Cain can actually refute Perry's petty attacks (that Perry will probably have trouble eloquently delivering in the first place) Perry will have no case and will have spent a good deal of the 90-minute debate with nothing to show for it.
Romney, I believe, will be fully prepared for the onslaught I'm sure he knows is coming. As we've seen in the past debates, the Fmr Governor will likely see the attacks coming and either not validate them with a response or will technically dissect them until they become ammo for him to use on the ones firing those shots. Ron Paul will have a similar strong performance just as before and his message will be the same, expect the Congressman to fire at Perry plenty. Nothing like a little Texas rivalry. Bachmann will most likely fall flat as she becomes increasingly irrelevant to voters, other than pundits and late-night comedians. Santorum will take on the Texas Governor on immigration while Huntsman will fire at his fellow Mormon, Governor Romney in order to gain traction in the state he is betting his whole campaign on. And finally, Gingrich will deliver the one-liners of the night, per usual but will likely not make much headway.
The debate will stream live tonight, at 8pm EST, on postpolitics.com. It will also air on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, Bloomberg.com, and on WBIN-TV in New Hampshire. Moderated by Charlie Rose, the debate will be mostly centered on the Economy but we can all agree plenty of other issues will be covered in the 90-minute spread.
Hashtag - #econdebate
Check back to the Spectrum for updates throughout the night and tomorrow morning.
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